Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
